A recent article on financialpost.com, “All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years in twin ‘death spiral’ for big oil and big auto,” has some good, clear thinking on the subject of autonomous cars and the coming transformation in transportation.
I think the most salient quote, for me, is this: :
“The parallel is what happened to film cameras – and to Kodak – once digital rivals hit the market. It was swift and brutal.”
There are far more factors at work than the kind of large-scale economic ones at work in this scenario. There are a myriad other inflection points, and each will serve to further catalyze the others. For example, what happens when the DMV sees a 10% drop in car registration fees? Fine, now how about 20%? 30% When the writing is on the wall, they won’t want to be caught short; registration prices will increase dramatically, and that compel more people to opt out of car ownership – causing a feedback loop that which will hasten the process. What happens when insurance companies see car insurance revenue drop by 10%? 20% You get the idea. Insurance companies, repair shops, AAA, the DMV – none will want to be left holding the bag.
I think we will all be amazed to see, in the not-too-distant future, neighborhoods of new homes built without driveways or garages. Grandchildren of today’s Millenials will see a house with a driveway as nostalgic and old-fashioned, like seeing a house with a TV antenna on the roof today.
One can easily imagine a brief boom in converting garages to finished rooms and a resulting desire to demolish driveways. After all, wont’ it be an eyesore to have a driveway that leads into a wall?
I’ve said for a long time that this changeover to autonomous vehicles and transportation-as-service will only go slowly until it goes very, very quickly.
But let’s not forget what is truly driving all of this (pun unavoidable). When you get into your car nowadays, you are a driver. When you get into an autonomous vehicle, you are a consumer. This is the simple fact that is making all of this happen with such urgency. And it’s why data-centric companies are leading the charge.